Pakistan-US Relations: Midterm Elections and the Future

Pakistan-US Relations: Midterm Elections and the Future
(Asghar Ali Mubarak)
Pakistan-US ties are not merely contingent on political shifts. The two nations share a long history of strategic cooperation in trade, investment, security, counter-terrorism, and, notably, the minerals sector. A recent press briefing by Foreign Office spokesperson Sajjad Haider Khan highlighted the evolving geopolitical landscape of the region and Pakistan’s pivotal diplomatic role. Pakistan has explicitly advocated for the preservation of its long-term relationship with the US, irrespective of the internal political climate in Washington. This statement from the Foreign Office reflects Pakistan’s perspective that changes within the US administration are navigated through enduring and stable institutional diplomacy—a framework wherein trade and security interests transcend political transitions. Pakistan’s diplomatic efforts to address the recent crisis in the Middle East and to de-escalate tensions between Washington and Tehran have garnered global acclaim. Following a long period during which direct communication between the US and Iran had ceased, Pakistan—acting as a neutral and trusted mediator—brought both parties together, paving the way for dialogue. The memorandum, signed in June 2026, is the culmination of joint efforts by Pakistan, Qatar, and other regional partners. This framework provides a foundation for a ceasefire, the easing of sanctions, and formal negotiations regarding the nuclear program. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has also described this as a sustainable path toward peace. The Foreign Office’s expression of serious concerns regarding the potential use of nuclear weapons is entirely consistent with the principles of global security. It is Pakistan’s principled stance that war or military threats cannot serve as solutions to any problem; all outstanding issues must be resolved through diplomacy and political dialogue. The alliance formed between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye—aimed at safeguarding regional peace and developing a joint strategy against any potential aggression—is further strengthening peace and stability in the Middle East. During a press briefing, it was also noted that certain elements in the region could pose obstacles to lasting peace. According to Pakistan, Israel’s recent expansionist policies and its efforts to fuel regional conflicts could sabotage the U.S.-Iran peace process; therefore, the international community must play its part to safeguard this diplomatic endeavor.
The relationship between Pakistan and the United States is marked by a history of ups and downs spanning decades. In the context of the current geopolitical landscape—specifically the war in Ukraine, the crisis in the Middle East, and the competition between China and the United States—this relationship is navigating a new and delicate phase.
The current framework of Pakistan-U.S. relations can be understood through the following key areas:
Economic and trade cooperation (a primary priority);…
Relations between Pakistan and the United States are no longer confined solely to security; instead, both nations are focusing on fostering an economic partnership. • Largest Export Market: The United States remains the largest export market for Pakistani products, particularly in the textile and IT sectors.
• Investment and Energy: Under the ‘U.S.-Pakistan Green Alliance,’ both nations are expanding cooperation in agriculture, climate change, and renewable energy.
• Minerals Sector: Pakistan seeks investment from U.S. companies in its mining and minerals sector—most notably in the Reko Diq project in Balochistan.
Security, Counter-terrorism, and Regional Stability;…
Security has historically been the strongest pillar of the relationship between the two countries.
• Counter-terrorism: To address the growing threats posed by extremist groups in the region—such as the TTP and ISKP (Islamic State-Khorasan Province)—Pakistan and the United States maintain ongoing intelligence sharing and security dialogues.
• The Situation in Afghanistan: Washington and Islamabad share largely aligned positions regarding stability in Afghanistan and the protection of women’s rights; both nations are committed to preventing Afghan territory from being used for global terrorism.
Strategic Balance;…
For Pakistan, the primary challenge in its foreign policy is maintaining a balance in its relations with both the United States and China.
• CPEC and the China Factor: The United States views China’s growing influence in Pakistan—specifically through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)—with concern. However, Pakistan’s stance remains clear: it will not align itself with any specific bloc and seeks to maintain independent relations with both powers. • US-India Nexus: Washington’s tilt toward India—and its cultivation of India as a strategic partner in the region to counter China—creates security concerns for Pakistan. Pakistan has consistently raised these concerns with the US administration.
Diplomatic Mediation;…
Pakistan recently played a pivotal diplomatic role in breaking the long-standing stalemate between the United States and Iran, facilitating their return to the negotiating table. This has led to a renewed recognition of Pakistan’s strategic importance in the region.

Future Direction and Challenges:
Recent political shifts in Washington—whether mid-term elections or changes in the presidency—do not alter the fundamental trajectory of US-Pakistan relations. The United States views Pakistan as a significant nuclear-armed state and a major regional player. To ensure a sustainable relationship, these ties should extend beyond a narrow focus on security; they must be built upon people-to-people exchanges, education (such as the Fulbright Scholarship program), and technology transfer. Pakistani leadership fears potential scrutiny of its close ties and agreements with the Trump administration; meanwhile, there is hope that a shift in U.S. policy could help alleviate the impacts of a war with Iran, as well as reduce inflation and oil prices.

After two years of efforts to cultivate a close relationship with the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, Pakistan’s leadership now faces concerns—following the Democrats’ success in the U.S. congressional elections—that its access to and connections within the White House may come under scrutiny.

Ordinary Pakistanis, however, view the election results differently. They hope that a political shift in Washington might help ease the inflation crisis, which has been further exacerbated by the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. Speaking to Reuters following the elections, citizens expressed hope that the changes in the U.S. capital would soon be felt in Pakistan. This South Asian nation, with a population exceeding 240 million, is heavily dependent on imports, and the rising oil prices—driven by the conflict—have impacted a large number of households. A citizen named Sajjad Ali stated, “We believe that meaningful negotiations with the current US administration are not possible, and the ongoing bloodshed will not cease until the US government changes.” He added, “We desire peace, economic improvement, and a reduction in rising oil prices.”
Another citizen, Asim Zafar, expressed hope that the election results would help limit Trump’s powers. According to him, “This could lead to shifts in key policies and might even help prevent certain injustices directed against Muslim-majority nations.” However, analysts note that for the Pakistani government and its powerful military leadership, these election results are a source of significant concern. Pakistan’s efforts to cultivate closer ties with Trump—bolstered by its role in mediating the conflict involving Iran—had granted Islamabad direct access to his administration. Yet, this access has so far failed to yield any tangible economic benefits. Furthermore, the prospect of US Congressional scrutiny into Islamabad’s dealings with Trump’s inner circle now threatens even those potential gains that the Pakistani leadership had been anticipating. It is worth noting that efforts to foster a close relationship with Trump began early in his second presidential term, with Army Chief General Asim Munir serving as the primary conduit between Islamabad and the White House. Trump has repeatedly referred to him as his “favorite field marshal.” In June 2025, a luncheon meeting between the two took place—unusually—without the presence of any Pakistani civilian official, highlighting the central role of the military leadership in the process of improving relations between the two nations. According to the Pakistan Army, these discussions covered not only security matters but also cooperation in the sectors of mining, energy, and cryptocurrency. Subsequently, Pakistan joined Trump’s “Board of Peace” and nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize. Pakistan’s nomination was based on Trump’s role in helping to resolve the conflict with India in May 2025; however, New Delhi rejects the claim that American mediation played any part in halting the hostilities between the two countries. Earlier this year, mediation in the conflict involving Iran further underscored the strategic significance of this close relationship. Islamabad facilitated the exchange of messages between Washington and Tehran and even hosted negotiations between the two nations in April; however, the “Islamabad Agreement” reached thereafter soon became ineffective.
Send feedback
Use the arrows to see the full translation. Pakistan’s growing diplomatic influence has not provided any significant protection against the economic repercussions of the war, and the state has derived only limited benefits from this proximity. In December 2025, the Export-Import Bank of the United States approved $1.25 billion for Pakistan’s Reko Diq copper and gold project. However, a major request by Pakistan to the U.S. Department of the Treasury for a special financial facility of $10 billion remains unanswered. Pakistan’s efforts to expand official and private-sector ties with the Trump administration are now becoming a source of political risk, as several agreements and Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) involve the interests of Donald Trump’s family or his close associates. Pakistan has signed MoUs to explore the possibility of using ‘USD1’—a stable digital currency issued by World Liberty Financial, a company linked to Trump—for payments. At the signing of this agreement in January, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb stated that innovation must be aligned with regulation, stability, and the national interest. Pakistan has also signed another MoU for the redevelopment of the Roosevelt Hotel in Manhattan; this agreement was negotiated by Steve Witkoff, a special envoy for Trump. Furthermore, Pakistan has placed an order for a limited number of drones from a company called Powers, which counts Trump’s sons, Donald Jr. and Eric, among its investors. In September, when asked about a potential conflict of interest regarding Powers, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly told Reuters, “There is no conflict of interest.” Husain Haqqani, Pakistan’s former ambassador to Washington, stated that the Pakistani leadership had cultivated “transactional relationships” with Trump’s team.
According to him, certain arrangements involving the U.S. President’s friends and associates “might not endure.” He added, “Pakistan appears completely unprepared for this potential scrutiny.” Daniel Markey, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Stimson Center, warned that if investigations suggest that matters were settled based on private interests, it could negatively impact the broader relationship between the two nations. Analysts note, however, that Pakistan still retains some diplomatic options. Michael Kugelman of the Atlantic Council pointed out that cooperation on counter-terrorism and diplomacy regarding Iran enjoy bipartisan support in the United States. He suggested that Democrats are more likely to hold Trump—rather than Pakistan—responsible for any controversial deals. Nevertheless, Kugelman cautioned, “The risk for Pakistan is that it has placed so many of its diplomatic eggs in the White House basket that it now has nothing left for the Democrats.”